Year-end home moves: buy, sell or wait?

At a glance

If you plan to buy in late 2026 or early 2027:

• San Francisco: If last year's pattern repeats, you'll have fewer new listings to choose from over the holidays. If you find a home you love and can afford at today's rate, I'd make an offer. Otherwise, if you can wait, I'd look again in early 2027 for more choice and possibly slightly lower rates.

• San Mateo: If listings fall as they did last year, Dec. 2026 could bring about 170 new listings. Look at homes that have been on the market for a while. Use recent sales to ask for a lower price or help with closing costs.

• Santa Clara: Ask for a better deal on condos and townhouses, and have your lender check the project before you commit. For houses, get your financing ready so you can make an offer when the right home fits your budget.

If you plan to sell in late 2026 or early 2027:

• San Francisco: Get your home ready now. Holiday travel and winter weather may keep some buyers from touring homes. If you can choose when to sell, consider listing after the holidays in early 2027, when more buyers may be looking.

• San Mateo: Set your price using similar homes. If offers on your single-family house fall short, consider relisting in early 2027 if you can afford to wait. For condos and townhouses, I'd adjust price expectations and keep the home listed.

• Santa Clara: For houses, consider listing in early 2027. Buyers returning from the holidays may bring more offers and higher prices. Still, use recent sales to set your price. For condos and townhouses, get HOA documents ready and address financing considerations before listing.

My outlook for late 2026 and early 2027

If last year's pattern repeats, fewer homes will come onto the market toward year-end. I expect single-family homes to stay strong and condos and townhouses to face a softer market into early 2027, though neither outcome is certain. Some condo projects can be harder to finance: lenders may also review HOA finances, insurance and building repairs. For townhouses, the requirements depend on how the property is legally owned.

Findings: more new listings in Sept. than Aug. 2026

More homes were newly listed in Sept. than in Aug. in all three counties. Completed sales increased in San Francisco and Santa Clara overall, but fell in San Mateo. In Santa Clara, house sales rose while condo and townhouse sales fell.

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San Francisco: more sales, median price up 7.7%

Compared with Aug. 2026, Sept. closings rose 21.9%, and the homes that sold spent less time on the market. New listings rose 50.3%. The median sale price rose 7.7%.

San Mateo: fewer sales, median price up 3.6%

Sept. 2026 brought 20.2% more new listings than Aug., while closings fell 4.6%. Median time on the market was unchanged. The median sale price rose 3.6%.

Santa Clara: mixed sales, median prices edged up

Single-family house closings rose 14.7% from Aug. to Sept. 2026, and median time on the market shortened slightly. Condo and townhouse sales fell 8.2%, despite more new listings. Median sale prices rose slightly in both groups.

About the numbers

• Sources: SFAR InfoSparks and SFARMLS, retrieved Oct 8, 2026.
• Changes compare Sept. with Aug. 2026 within each county.
• Both charts show monthly counts from Sept. 2025 through Sept. 2026. Closings are grouped by closing date.
• SFH = Single Family House. Listings and SF/San Mateo sales combine SFH, condos and townhouses; Santa Clara sales split by type.
• New listings are not total inventory. Medians depend on the homes sold. Data are unadjusted for seasonality and may change.
• Fannie Mae's forecast puts the national 30-year fixed mortgage average at 6.8% in Q4 2026 and 6.7% in Q1 2027. Any improvement would be modest; individual loan quotes vary.
• Seasonal guidance: National Association of Realtors.
• The outlook is my opinion, not a guarantee of rates, offers or prices.